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  #26  
Old 2006-12-07, 12:07
Gustav Sweden's Avatar
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Global warming is a badly picked name because what matters when we discuss it is not the global warming, but the actual global warming caused by humanity.

The end of oil is something that I am quite sceptic to. Since 1970 we have used up 3 times more oil than we believed there was left in the world then. Humans are creative and will find out new ways to gather oil. As Jasiek says, lack of oil will also the prices upwards, which lowers the quantity of oil that is consumed.

I don't give much for Al Gore's apocalypse prophecies, but it is probably so that our CO2 pollution is a growing problem that raises global temperature - I can't know, I'm no meteorologist and some say we don't affect temperatures.

The consequences for us in the developed world will not be too bad, we have the resources to prevent disasters caused by different side effects on the global warming. But for people in poverty it is another issue. They don't have the capacity to limit the effects caused by natural disasters. An example I read was a comparision of the earthquake in Bam, Iran, last year that killed tens of thousands of people with stronger earth quakes in the SF/LA area in the recent decades that have barely managed to kill off 100 people.

The solution to this are market economic measures, like the trade with emission rights in the European Union. I am a bit sceptic towards the much-hyped Kyoto Protocol, it does not seem to be right thing. It comes with gigantic costs for society and will not do much in preventing global warming.

Another important thing is the promotion of free trade, from the EU and US. This is the one most important thing when it comes to lift the people in the developing world, especially Africa, out of poverty. Without growth they won't be able to cope with the problems (lack of water, dryness, dramatic weather change, natural disasters) that might come out of climate change.

This is also an interesting matter when it comes to China and India and the enormous economic growth that have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty during the last 2 decades. The environmentalists are very scared of this development because they fear that "China will have more cars than the US in a couple of years" and all that. They want to preserve the economic distribution of income in the world as it is today, with us, the rich people in the west and exotic places that we can visit where people are poor and the leaders are kept in place by foreign aid. They want to deny the people of China and India our welfare.
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  #27  
Old 2006-12-07, 13:49
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Thats a tad unfair.
They dont wont to dent China and India our welfare.
They merely dont want them to become as poluting and as resource grabbing as say, the US, with its crappy SUV-mindset.

A country can far easier embrace better enviromental attitudes as it grows, rather then retro-fitting them once the social mindset has been set.

Indeed, if China and India embraced alternative energy now, they would actualy be far *better* off then US and Europe in the long term.

Quote:
The end of oil is something that I am quite sceptic to. Since 1970 we have used up 3 times more oil than we believed there was left in the world then. Humans are creative and will find out new ways to gather oil. As Jasiek says, lack of oil will also the prices upwards, which lowers the quantity of oil that is consumed.
Thing is, however much there is, we are using it up an an expotentialy increaseing rate. And its not being replaced at all.
You cant gather whats not there.
The simple fact is we dont know when it will run out,but assumeing it wont is crazy.

The more gradual we get off using oil, the better...both enviromentaly, economicaly, and even socialy.
A sudden cut off of oil (and by "sudden" I mean "10 years"), is going to be terrible for humans.
Replaceing the whole worldwide energy structure of humanity will take a long time now, and every day it will take longer.

Heres one point:
Cars, House's, and just about every land-based energy currently has replacement technologys that can, with social adaption be used, and wont really effect our lifes that much.

However, no oil = no airtravel.

Personaly, I think easy airtravel has been a huge social benifit to the world.
Making the world smaller has reduced the wars, made people less fearing of forigners, and generaly been a force for social good.
You dont go to war with people your torriests with generaly

imo, the next generation, or the one after, will look back at us for being utter complete basterds. We wasted the oil on things that didnt really need to use it.

Quote:
I am a bit sceptic towards the much-hyped Kyoto Protocol, it does not seem to be right thing. It comes with gigantic costs for society and will not do much in preventing global warming.
Its not working merely because the credits are given out too freely to start with.
The costs certainly arnt high for society, if we cant meet a frankly piss-easy targets Kyoto set, theres no hope for ones that really would make a difference.
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  #28  
Old 2006-12-07, 13:51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Muerte View Post
I don't global warming is a badly picked name. Since the rise in global average temperature is the cause of a lot of bad shit happening.
Thing is it might not even result in a global rise in temperature.
Some models even have global warming actualy triggering an ice-age.
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  #29  
Old 2006-12-07, 15:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkflame View Post
Thing is it might not even result in a global rise in temperature. Some models even have global warming actualy triggering an ice-age.
That's how it works actually, a global increase in temperature equals more cold water from the polar regions melting, and as cold falls down it goes into the gulf stream, distrurbing it's flow, and as the gulf stream will get colder and colder it might trigger a next ice age.

Gustav, I din't merely say that oil prices will go higher, but that the amount of oil left depends on how much it costs, let's say that a barrel cost 80 dollars, then, with that cost we have enough oil for 20 years, rase the price about 2-3 dollars and we have oil for 30 years, becouse the more you pay, the more there are possibilites to use sources that where too deep before, and as the excavation prices was higher, it didn't produce a maximal income from them. With the price as much as 160 bucks per barrel we'll have oil for about 200 years.

And guys no, humans do not cause the so called global warming, we do influence the environment, but the balance of the nature is still out of our reach, all our tries result only in local, not global destrucion. Our period is a interglacial period, wich means we live inbetween ice ages, it will get hotter and hotter, wich will result in tropical changes, wich will then disturb the gulf stream wich will result in a next ice age, but seriously, the "ice age" might be weak and almost unnoticable.

I'd like to remind you guys of the climate changes, during the times of early egipt the sahara was a savannah, you can even see that on the Sphinx, wich has sinds on erosion caused by monsune rains.

Climate changes are beyound us, of course we can't be barbaric and vandalize our environment - still I think it is better to press forward, use the most modern technologies and put an end to a civilisation that neads to exploit the planet to ustain itself, then to restrain ourselves, wich will result in the process taking much longer.
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  #30  
Old 2006-12-07, 17:02
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The idea that this is a housing problem. Us beening less mobile? not ready to adapt, maybe... I think it's not just us. It's not about a the discomfort of a rising sea and more exsteem weather.
Quote:
"A lot of nature depends on the exchange of warmth"
(And that is rather crucial.)

The animal habitats are not just "places where they live" it's crucial to there survival, and the other way around.
I whould say humans could move more easy than these animals. We have alternative places to go. We have populated and spread like we where some kind of virus. That almost makes us smart in the survival of our species. We don't have the direct need for adaptation because we have places to go.

But there are things like bacteria who don't need to mutate/adapt in an linear sense of reproduction. They kind of just exchange properties to there bothers and sisters and other families as well, really effective. Especially when warmth comes into the equation.
Ofcourse this is bad enough sinds antibiotics are getting behind every day. But to make it all worst viruses need bacteria for there habitat and reproducktion.

So my guess is, apart from the potential extreme weather, diseases are going to be our main concern. Sinds science can't keep up with them already and we are about the only creature living in relatieve hygiëne weakening us.

What big a role humanity has doesn't really matter imo. We are part of the system we live in anyway. I do think we could slow things down, maybe even get a new ballance instead of sliding into... whatever.

Ofcourse I'm not an expert but it kind of made sence to me.
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  #31  
Old 2006-12-07, 17:10
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Quote:
With the price as much as 160 bucks per barrel we'll have oil for about 200 years.
Complete guesswork.
There is no global dipstick.

Prices will go up, but you think we will have 200 years warning? fat chance.
10-15 years at best,imo.
And its only after the warning is recieved prices will start climbing, and it will be a very sudden climb indeed. World food supplys, as well as world transport will be drasticaly effected.
Changeing the worlds energy inferstructure takes time, a lot of time.

The slower the change happens, the more plesent it will be for all of us.

Quote:
And guys no, humans do not cause the so called global warming,
Scientists say otherwise.
How much is the question, not IF.

As I said, we are releaseing millions of years of stored CO2, theres no way that could possibly be not making an effect.
It dosnt mater if 90% of warming is natural, if we are adding 10% onto that we are making it *even more hard* for us to survive in the long term.

As the world population increase's, food and energy supplys will get much more deseperate. Argueing over what is causing the most climet change is like argueing over who made a timebomb you are corrently standing next too.

We need to get off this idiotic oil addiction asap.
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  #32  
Old 2006-12-07, 18:54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkflame View Post
As the world population increase's, food and energy supplys will get much more deseperate. Argueing over what is causing the most climet change is like argueing over who made a timebomb you are corrently standing next too.

We need to get off this idiotic oil addiction asap.
Now that I can agree with, hopefully, there's ITER being built in france, the next one will stand in Japan, oxygen powered cars appeared, they have enough air to power the engine for 200km, take 6 people and 60kg of load and drive with an average speed of 110 km/h, the air tank fills up with a ordinary compressor that is used for filling your tires, and it fills your tank on a station in 30 sec, 6 hours from a compressor in your car.

There's 70 fahrrad capacitors, and capacitors load in a second, and could power a car for hundreds of km.

We can make electricity from hydrogen, and as it is completely useless for cars (You are still addicted to a fuelling station, and no modern material can hold more hydrogen in a car then for roughly 100km), but it's quite good if we were to use tap water to create hydrogen for it and power up your own electric grid from electrolisys.

I find the whole deal with power lines, and a central power plant kinda stupid, what if a major disaster happens(Like a meteor)? We're all be back in the dark ages then... (a bit of an overstatement, but still...)

Anyway, I think we're on the good track, the whole new US space program is kinda centered now on going to the moon for helium3 (Wich could power up the ITER without almost any radioactive waist). It might move things in the space direction, it will start being somehting worth investing, space travel that is, mining operations on asteroids and such. Electric cars also appear from time to time and it's happening more frequently, and wherever they appear people fall in love with them, like the GM EV1 wich met a sad fate, but many people get inspired by it.
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  #33  
Old 2006-12-07, 19:59
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there was a tornado in London today.
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